The Threat of Recession and the Impact on the Horticulture Industry

Where is the Economy Going and How Will it Impact Your Horticulture Business?

Plant for Profits Column, Leslie F. Halleck

Note: I wrote this a week prior to the publication date of 3/10/25, after I was asked some questions on LinkedIn about what I thought of new announcements about green industry businesses folding. There has since been some waffling/confusion about what tariffs will or won't go into effect at this point, but nonetheless the outlook appears the same.

Today is a day for Hard Truths.

For those of you who work with me in the horticulture industry, either as a client or student, and have asked me what I think about the current economy and how it will impact your businesses and careers…I wish I had a shinier response for you.

If you know me at all you know I’m not one to sugar coat reality. I’m a purveyor of hard truths. It doesn’t always make me popular, but I’m not comfortable peddling b.s. or positivity for positivity's sake; and you can’t make good business decisions if you aren’t willing to confront reality.

So where do I think the economy is going and what does it mean for the horticulture industry? As of late my gut, and observations of data, have kicked me back to Great Recession 2008 vibes. Now that I’ve started seeing horticultural companies in the green industry having their credit lines pulled and debts called in, it’s starting to feel like deja vu. However, combined with a tariff war, massive layoffs (up 245% over the last few months), the stock market tanking, a sharp decline in consumer confidence and spending, and regulatory oversight and infrastructure being dismantled at the federal level, just to name a few highlights - not to mention what appears to be a concerted effort to crash the economy and erode the U.S. Dollar in favor of a cryptocurrency reserve system that most obviously benefits the already very wealthy. (In fact after I wrote this piece the Texas senate just passed legislation for a cryptocurrency reserve for the state...so this ain't conspiracy folks https://www.msn.com/en-us/mone...)

It seems to me a major recession is in the works right now with bigger impact on the horizon, at the very least. It's a recession that feels intentionally manufactured with ulterior motives. It may not fully hit us this year, maybe next year or a bit later in his term, I supposed we'll see. Unfortunately, it feels like there will be worse to come beyond a simple recession. You should be analyzing the economic data and making plans for how to shore up your business in the face of difficult economic realities moving forward. Now, the average for modern day recessions is about 10-months - with the 2008 Great Recession lasting a good couple of years (2007-2009) with impact lasting well beyond -but I don’t see how the path we are now on is anything that’s going to resolve that quickly unless there is a major course correction.

I truly hope I’m completely wrong, and I’m hoping we can turn this around through concerted effort; but pretending any of this is normal business-as-usual, or operating your business as such, seems to be to be folly.

Do I feel things are totally hopeless? No. Because all of us as individuals have more power than we think, and as a business owner you can assert your values and ethics in how you choose to do business. You can lean in and use your voice.This is how we increase influence. Silence won’t help us and bullies fear push back of any kind.

You do, however, need to acknowledge a significant real shift in consumer behavior as we move into spring and beyond. If you’ve been struggling with lagging sales and low social engagement lately and are trying to come up with reasons other than the economy, I think that’s an argument with yourself you’re going to lose. There’s is a concerted growing movement with consumers to not participate in the economy at all, in regard to buying anything new or spending money with any large corporations. Not to mention dropping social media channels and participation altogether. It’s important to remember that as a business you are constantly in the business of replenishing your customer pipeline. Training new younger customers into the hobby of plants and gardening and shopping with independent retailers as older customers move on. You need to pay attention to how those younger customers are now viewing their economic futures (not good) and how that’s going to impact your customer recruiting realities. How do you fit in?

The realities are what they are, and we have to respond proactively and accordingly.

This isn’t my first recession rodeo, as is the case for most of us. Of course I had to try and survive the Covid Recession and 2020 market crash, both personally and professionally as a business owner and employer. Which was no easy feat and resulted in big changes to how I operate. As an adult I've also dealt with the Gulf War Recession and the Dot-Bomb recession. I was the GM for a legacy IGC (Independent Garden Center) during the 2008 Great Recession. I managed to stay in the black and profitable in that business at a time when many businesses in the industry were either failing or closing. How did I do this? By leaning in to any and all available gaps left open in the marketplace by those who decided to pull back and tighten their belts. By assertively amplifying the business’ voice. When times get tough and other businesses pull out of your market, it does leave space for you to capture ground and market voice. Now is not the time to reduce your marketing budget and efforts, rather to aggressively lean in to reminding your customers how you can be a solution to many of their pain points.

Collectively we all tend to rise and fall together in this industry. So if you all decide to lean in and reinvest in how you communicate with and support your customers, it’s possible we’ll all do better.

While the horticulture industry is certainly not immune to recession, there are some areas in which we can potentially thrive. As many of you may have (at least temporarily) during the Covid Plantdemic. As business or professional in the plant and gardening space, you offer distinct solutions to many of the problems consumers are now dealing with. Stress, anxiety, uncertainty. When humans are stressed, they turn to nature. Consumers may hold off on spending on big ticket items or vacations…but if they can grow a little happiness at home and bring nature indoors you can be there to help. We’re also going to see a bigger resurgence, again, in food gardening, backyard chicken keeping, home greenhouses, seed sales, etc.

Plant lovers and gardeners are a tactile bunch. We like to see, touch, feel in person and get our hands dirty. Keep this in mind as you move forward with planning your business marketing, buying, event-planning and the like. You’re not just marketing; what you’re really doing is cultivating your community. How can you better serve your community and bring it together? A community that may need to lean on itself a lot more in the coming years.